What Impact Could Ebola Have on the Global Supply Chain?

One of the world’s most deadly diseases, killing up to 90% of people who contract it, the current outbreak of Ebola is widespread and causing panic on a global scale. It is decimating the populations of Western African countries, having claimed at least 2,811 lives to date.

After the well-publicized scares over outbreaks of SARS and Avian flu originating in China over the last decade, it seems we may now have a truly global pandemic on our hands that currently has no cure.

So it’s natural that every precaution possible is being taken to ensure that the disease doesn’t spread more widely. As incidences of people contracting or developing Ebola in previously unaffected regions – e.g. the recent cases in the U.S. and in Spain – grow, it is likely that anti-Ebola precautions will become more widespread, and the global supply chain looks more and more likely to be impacted.

It may be surprising the degree to which Western countries could be affected. U.S. goods imports from sub-Saharan Africa totaled $39.3 billion and goods exports to sub-Saharan Africa were $24 billion in 2013 (source: Office of the United States Trade Representative). In the same period, the EU traded 38,273 million Euros in imports and 30,471 million Euros in exports with Western African countries specifically, much of which is petrochemical based product that cannot easily be sourced elsewhere (source: European Commission).

Potential measures impacting on the global supply chain as the threat of Ebola continues include:
• New restrictions and regulations on goods originating from the region (e.g. crew and ground handling teams wearing protective clothing and physical contact minimized)
• Possible quarantines on passengers, crew and cargo coming into port
• Tighter regulations for airline passengers traveling to and from the region
• New IATA regulations on how to handle, store and ship goods

The other primary impact of Ebola is likely to be avoidance – as paranoia grows and fear takes over, will people still be willing to buy and trade with countries in West Africa? Africa is the second largest continent, covering 20% of the total land surface of the world, and the second most populated. The continent is also one of the richest in terms of raw materials and labor. Will the threat of Ebola derail progress in this developing nation?

Ebola poses a potentially greater risk to business continuity; costs of goods sold, impact on global supply chains and even the availability of goods than any other we have faced, and it’s on a global scale. It represents such a serious risk due to the extended incubation period, lack of knowledge and research and the fact that it can reach more people in shorter time period than most other diseases.

It also demonstrates why supply chain visibility is so essential to managing risk that is beyond our control. Only by having in place end-to-end supply chain visibility enabled through multimodal transportation software from vendors such as Kewill that covers all of the links in the chain, can businesses maintain an audit trail of where goods have originated from and passed through, and keep track of where their shipments are and be alerted to exceptions causing schedule delays.

At its height, the Ebola crisis could realistically see crew or entire vessels under lockdown in quarantine or goods being required to be destroyed based on their journey, all of which will be impossible to manage without knowing precisely where shipments are and, more importantly, where they have been and when. Ebola is already creating a humanitarian disaster – it remains to be seen if the global supply chain can avoid a crisis.

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